Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 7.39 0.07 7.30 Western Province 5.87 3.43 2.40 Sharks 3.00 5.09 -2.10 Blue Bulls 1.17 -0.74 1.90 Cheetahs -3.53 0.33 -3.90 Pumas -8.20 -10.00 1.80 Griquas -10.10 -7.49 -2.60 Kings -14.91 -10.00 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Lions vs. Sharks Oct 18 50 – 20 6.70 TRUE 2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 18 31 – 23 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 25 Western Province 3.50