ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Tasman 12.36 5.78 6.60 Canterbury 12.25 18.09 -5.80 Counties Manukau 6.58 2.40 4.20 Taranaki 6.27 -3.89 10.20 Auckland 4.84 4.92 -0.10 Hawke’s Bay 0.47 2.75 -2.30 Wellington -2.74 10.16 -12.90 Manawatu -2.90 -10.32 7.40 Otago -3.98 -1.45 -2.50 Northland -4.05 -8.22 4.20 Waikato -5.74 -1.20 -4.50 Southland -6.07 -5.85 -0.20 Bay of Plenty -9.23 -5.47 -3.80 North Harbour -10.13 -9.77 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 17 26 – 21 9.30 TRUE 2 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 18 23 – 18 7.70 TRUE 3 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 18 49 – 30 3.00 TRUE 4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 18 26 – 6 1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 24 Manawatu 0.60 2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 25 Tasman -2.10