NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90 Broncos 7.52 4.03 3.50 Cowboys 4.67 9.52 -4.90 Rabbitohs 4.06 13.06 -9.00 Storm 2.78 4.36 -1.60 Dragons 2.04 -1.74 3.80 Warriors 1.76 3.07 -1.30 Bulldogs 0.38 0.21 0.20 Panthers -0.49 3.69 -4.20 Raiders -2.21 -7.09 4.90 Eels -2.93 -7.19 4.30 Sea Eagles -2.96 2.68 -5.60 Sharks -4.01 -10.76 6.70 Knights -4.99 -0.28 -4.70 Titans -5.78 -8.20 2.40 Wests Tigers -6.74 -13.13 6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 26 44 – 22 14.40 TRUE 2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 26 20 – 8 9.70 TRUE 3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 27 18 – 24 14.50 FALSE 4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 27 16 – 12 -3.00 FALSE 5 Warriors vs. Raiders Jun 27 30 – 8 5.70 TRUE 6 Roosters vs. Titans Jun 28 20 – 10 18.20 TRUE 7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 28 12 – 35 -0.10 TRUE 8 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 29 20 – 4 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 Rabbitohs -1.50 2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 04 Dragons 0.40 3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 05 Sea Eagles 4.10 4 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 06 Eels -0.80