Super 15 Prediction for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40 Hurricanes 9.06 2.89 6.20 Highlanders 6.98 -2.54 9.50 Waratahs 6.13 10.00 -3.90 Brumbies 4.27 2.20 2.10 Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40 Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20 Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50 Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80 Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60 Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90 Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60 Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50 Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70 Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 29 – 9 7.80 TRUE 2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 17 – 35 6.40 FALSE

 

Prediction for the Final

Here is the prediction for the final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 04 Hurricanes 6.10