NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Roosters 8.82 9.09 -0.30 Broncos 6.98 4.03 2.90 Cowboys 6.07 9.52 -3.50 Storm 4.02 4.36 -0.30 Rabbitohs 3.88 13.06 -9.20 Dragons 2.55 -1.74 4.30 Warriors 0.63 3.07 -2.40 Bulldogs -0.85 0.21 -1.10 Raiders -1.08 -7.09 6.00 Panthers -2.05 3.69 -5.70 Sea Eagles -2.78 2.68 -5.50 Eels -3.44 -7.19 3.70 Knights -4.44 -0.28 -4.20 Wests Tigers -5.18 -13.13 7.90 Sharks -5.42 -10.76 5.30 Titans -6.37 -8.20 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 30 – 20 4.60 TRUE 2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 20 24 – 12 2.90 TRUE 3 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 20 20 – 21 -4.70 TRUE 4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 20 14 – 36 0.00 FALSE 5 Knights vs. Sharks Jun 21 28 – 30 5.00 FALSE 6 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 21 12 – 14 0.40 FALSE 7 Dragons vs. Roosters Jun 22 14 – 19 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 26 Broncos 14.40 2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 26 Rabbitohs 9.70 3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 27 Cowboys 14.50 4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 27 Dragons -3.00 5 Warriors vs. Raiders Jun 27 Warriors 5.70 6 Roosters vs. Titans Jun 28 Roosters 18.20 7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 28 Panthers -0.10 8 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 29 Storm -1.90