Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals: Correction

I made a mistake in entering the fixtures and had the Waratahs playing away.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40 Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40 Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50 Highlanders 5.62 -2.54 8.20 Brumbies 5.03 2.20 2.80 Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40 Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20 Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50 Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80 Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60 Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90 Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60 Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50 Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70 Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 24 – 14 5.40 TRUE 2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 19 – 39 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 Hurricanes 7.80 2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 Waratahs 6.40