ITM Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Tasman 12.32 12.86 -0.50 Canterbury 10.80 10.90 -0.10 Counties Manukau 7.05 7.86 -0.80 Taranaki 5.49 7.70 -2.20 Auckland 4.79 5.14 -0.30 Hawke’s Bay 2.72 -0.57 3.30 Wellington 0.79 -4.62 5.40 Manawatu -1.98 -1.52 -0.50 Southland -4.22 -6.01 1.80 Waikato -5.31 -6.96 1.60 Otago -6.35 -4.84 -1.50 Northland -6.76 -3.64 -3.10 Bay of Plenty -8.92 -9.77 0.80 North Harbour -14.41 -10.54 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 North Harbour vs. Wellington Aug 20 0 – 43 -4.20 TRUE 2 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 34 – 13 26.20 TRUE 3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 22 21 – 28 10.50 FALSE 4 Northland vs. Southland Aug 22 18 – 27 3.80 FALSE 5 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 22 22 – 39 -2.40 TRUE 6 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 23 30 – 24 2.70 TRUE 7 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 20 – 15 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 26 Southland -0.70 2 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 27 Tasman 18.30 3 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Counties Manukau 8.30 4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 29 Canterbury -2.00 5 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 29 Taranaki 15.80 6 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 29 Wellington 11.50 7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 30 Bay of Plenty 0.40 8 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 30 Southland 14.20