ITM Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Tasman 12.47 12.86 -0.40 Canterbury 11.16 10.90 0.30 Hawke’s Bay 5.63 -0.57 6.20 Auckland 4.43 5.14 -0.70 Counties Manukau 4.14 7.86 -3.70 Taranaki 3.43 7.70 -4.30 Wellington 2.36 -4.62 7.00 Manawatu -2.13 -1.52 -0.60 Waikato -2.17 -6.96 4.80 Otago -4.30 -4.84 0.50 Southland -6.95 -6.01 -0.90 Northland -8.33 -3.64 -4.70 Bay of Plenty -10.56 -9.77 -0.80 North Harbour -13.18 -10.54 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 26 26 – 10 -0.70 FALSE 2 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 27 41 – 21 18.30 TRUE 3 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 11 – 35 8.30 FALSE 4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 29 21 – 27 -2.00 TRUE 5 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 29 27 – 34 15.80 FALSE 6 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 29 29 – 0 11.50 TRUE 7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 30 10 – 43 0.40 FALSE 8 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 30 25 – 26 14.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 3.30 2 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 03 Canterbury -9.30 3 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 04 Tasman -12.80 4 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 05 Auckland -2.60 5 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 05 Wellington -5.30 6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 05 Hawke’s Bay 22.80 7 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 06 Taranaki -7.80 8 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 06 Counties Manukau 18.70