Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 17.79 16.52 1.30 Munster 10.32 9.90 0.40 Ulster 9.06 4.58 4.50 Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00 Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30 Scarlets 1.61 1.98 -0.40 Connacht 1.40 0.70 0.70 Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00 Cardiff Blues -0.59 0.08 -0.70 Ospreys -1.90 -2.82 0.90 Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10 Dragons -8.19 -7.85 -0.30 Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00 Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 29 – 20 1.40 TRUE 2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 10 – 16 -3.50 TRUE 3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 20 – 28 0.20 FALSE 4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 29 – 20 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Treviso vs. Munster Jan 31 Munster -6.20 2 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 Connacht -2.90 3 Scarlets vs. Leinster Jan 31 Leinster -11.00

 

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