RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 5

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference New Zealand 19.21 16.32 2.90 Ireland 18.17 15.46 2.70 South Africa 17.93 16.35 1.60 France 14.26 12.48 1.80 Scotland 8.89 6.81 2.10 England 7.25 4.22 3.00 Wales 3.01 0.75 2.30 Argentina 2.61 1.23 1.40 Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80 Fiji 0.67 0.58 0.10 Samoa -0.96 -0.50 -0.50 Georgia -3.84 -2.56 -1.30 Japan -5.21 -6.10 0.90 Italy -8.65 -8.84 0.20 Tonga -12.59 -11.38 -1.20 Portugal -13.90 -13.61 -0.30 Uruguay -14.67 -15.47 0.80 Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70 Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80 Romania -22.18 -17.02 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Uruguay vs. Namibia Sep 27 36 – 26 3.10 TRUE 2 Japan vs. Samoa Sep 28 28 – 22 -5.40 FALSE 3 New Zealand vs. Italy Sep 29 96 – 17 23.90 TRUE 4 Argentina vs. Chile Sep 30 59 – 5 19.90 TRUE 5 Fiji vs. Georgia Sep 30 17 – 12 4.40 TRUE 6 Scotland vs. Romania Sep 30 84 – 0 27.00 TRUE 7 Australia vs. Portugal Oct 01 34 – 14 14.90 TRUE 8 South Africa vs. Tonga Oct 01 49 – 18 30.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 New Zealand vs. Uruguay Oct 05 New Zealand 33.90 2 France vs. Italy Oct 06 France 29.90 3 Wales vs. Georgia Oct 07 Wales 6.80 4 England vs. Samoa Oct 07 England 8.20 5 Ireland vs. Scotland Oct 07 Ireland 9.30 6 Japan vs. Argentina Oct 08 Argentina -7.80 7 Fiji vs. Portugal Oct 08 Fiji 14.60 8 Tonga vs. Romania Oct 08 Tonga 9.60

 

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