Out-of-sample validation with 16 data points
"But it's under .05!" 2015-07-01
Summary:
It’s worth a try. Let me say that I think it’s a useful thing to do before I start nitpicking: the prediction interval widths are amusing. But: If you only allow data prior to an election to be used when fitting a model, you ending using 1948 data to inform parameter estimates a lot, and 2008 […]