Simulating conditions of legislative violence

Christopher Gandrud uses ggplot to illustrate his analysis of violence in national legislative chambers (e.g. Turkey, above). After gathering a data set of incidents of legislative violence, he applied logistic regression for rare events to identify the most important variables and the extent of their importance. He then predicted the probability of violence in a range of conditions with a round of simulations, depicted below.

Christopher discusses his approach to this plot in detail here.

The take home on legislative violence: new democracies with poor concordance between votes from the electorate, seats in the legislature, and proportion of governmental power are more likely to see legislative violence.