What will happen to American higher education enrollment this fall?

Greetings from August, that time when academics teaching fall classes are in various stages of excitement, redesign, and panic.

Out of the many questions I’m considering for this fall term, one I wanted to share today concerns international students in American colleges and universities.  Actually, that’s two questions.  First, how far will enrollment shrink?  Second, what are the possible impacts on academia?

To recap the reasons for shrinkage: the new Trump administration has been doing all kinds of things which could deter would-be students from applying to, much less attending American campuses.  Detaining international students, officials proclaiming some of those students to be terrible people, making visa applications more difficult, targeting students for their speech, implementing travel bans do not make the nation’s post-secondary sector more appealing.  Geopolitical tensions, notably with China and now with India, might discourage some people.  (My YouTube series on Trump vs higher ed offers a more detailed survey.) Memories of anti-Asian sentiments and actions from the COVID era linger. And stories of gun violence on or near campuses, like last week’s shooting causing an Emory University lockdown, don’t help things.

Ironically, this should be a moment when American colleges and universities could win more international students.  Other Anglophonic nations – Canada, Britain, Australia – are experiencing declines in their international recruitment for various, often self-inflicted reasons. The United States is in a fine position to take advantage… or was, until Trump unleashed his anti-academic campaign.

It is still early to get good data on fall 2025 international enrollment.  Anecdotally, academics have told me stories of individual campuses and programs seeing smaller foreign student numbers. Professionals have given me widely varying estimates of a decline from 5-40%. NAFSA published models based on a 30-40% drop.

I’m waiting for the next Open Doors report, which should arrive in September, hopefully.

And things may well change during the academic year, possibly for the worse. We could see international students arrive on campuses in August-September, then return to their home countries over the next few months depending on what happens in the US. I can think of many possible events which could drive enrolled students away: more university violence, more federal travel bans, troop presence in or adjacent to campus grounds, well publicized acts of bigotry, geopolitical events (tariffs, blockades, acts of war). We’ll have to look to spring 2026 to get a real handle on actual numbers.

What impact might a significant decline in international student numbers have?

To begin with, there could be a reduction in the cultural and interpersonal benefits of international study. Fewer students would experience that challenging and rewarding time of learning in America. Fewer academics (students, faculty, staff) would have the opportunity of engaging and learning from students drawn from other nations.  American campuses become a touch less global, a bit more parochial.

There is also a potential hit to campus finances.  International students tend to pay full price for their education, unlike a good number of Americans, and might even pay more, so institutions will lose some of that revenue.  This would hit campuses already suffering from financial stresses quite hard, stresses caused by Trump actions and/or from trends predating this year.

More broadly, international students contribute to local economies and the national economy overall.  That NAFSA student I mentioned earlier estimates “nearly $7 billion in lost revenue and more than 60,000 fewer jobs.”

One additional impact of a potential drop might be a hit to American global academic influence and leadership.  As Trisha Tewari observed in the Times of India, “[t]he economic losses are measurable, the academic consequences visible, but the erosion of America’s global leadership in education may be the deepest wound of all.”

Please remember that such an outcome is very contingent on many different developments across multiple domains: popular culture, geopolitics, academic institutions, media, national politics, and more. America might escape such a decline if nations and families decide sending people to the United States is worth the risk.  Interest in certain fields, notably AI and STEM in general, might overcome political and cultural barriers. And the reduction in competition with Canada, Australia, and Britain might boost enrollment.

In the meantime, I think it’s prudent to plan for the possibility of an international student decline.  We in academia might also be wise to be extra careful given the deepening threat environment. Some of us might also step up to critique and resist the situation.