Another jobs projection: support for the Health Care Nation scenario

Which academics fields are growing, and for what reasons?  Which are shrinking, and why?

I’ve been exploring these questions for years.  Today I came across a recent federal report which might give some insights.

One answer is that health care teaching and research is building up in colleges and universities because of medical advances, the unique way America structures medical support, and demographics.  I’ve built up a scenario from this, called Health Care Nation, wherein allied health (the full spectrum of health care, from nursing to psychotherapy to pharma, EMT, hospital administration, etc.) becomes the leading sector of the American economy.  In this future higher education reacts by expanding its health care teaching, research, and service commitments.

I started mentioning Health Care Nation in talked more than a decade ago, then began writing about it: in 2014 (EDUCUASE Review; blog post), 2017 (blog post; another one), 2018 (blog post; another one), 2020 (in Academia Next), and 2024 (video; blog post).

Which brings us to the present. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)* recently published a report estimating which jobs are likely to grow in demand over the next nine years.  The findings are fascinating:

and:

I note the low numbers for education.  Note, too, the high demand for social service jobs, including mental health:

[T]he projected fast growth for community and social service occupations (+6.6 percent) will stem from more individuals seeking assistance for a variety of challenges, such as marriage and family counseling as well as substance abuse counseling and support.

BLS is bullish on technology jobs, which isn’t a universally held view, given early signs of AI’s impact on computer jobs for a start.   The report is also keen on the energy transition, seeing growth in various forms of green jobs, plus the AI buildout:

Increased demand for electricity, primarily related to AI integration, electric vehicles (EVs), and new data centers, is expected over the next decade. As a result, the four top fastest growing industries are related to energy generation. Solar, wind, geothermal, and other electric power generation, which includes tidal power, are projected to be the fastest growing industries over the projections period… The four fastest growing industries combined are projected to add 41,600 jobs. The projected fifth-fastest growing industry, other electrical equipment and component manufacturing, includes battery production used for storage and in EVs, is projected to add 48,400 jobs.

There’s more to work through, but for me the clear employment winner is health care.  “Just as fast growth is expected in the healthcare and social assistance sector, healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to be among the fastest growing occupational groups, growing 12.4 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively, from 2024 to 2034.” It appears in particular terms of eldercare and disabilities:

Among the ten fastest growing industries, the services for the elderly and persons with disabilities industry (+21.0 percent) is projected to add 528,500 new jobs, the most of any detailed industries. Demand for in-home care will contribute to this growth…

The healthcare occupations with the fastest projected employment growth—such as nurse practitioners, physical therapist assistants, and physician assistants—assist in meeting this growing demand for care.

This is just one report, but a useful one. It’s speculative by nature, but backed up by a lot of research.  For now I’ll add it to the Health Care Nation pile. In the meantime, it seems hard to go wrong in supporting allied health education and professional development.

*I added an asterisk here not just for a footnote, but because I am increasingly skeptical of United States federal government publications, due to the Trump administration’s open interventions against research and intelligence. This report might be solid because it could have been written before Trump started crashing around, and might otherwise have escaped his and his allies’ influence. That said, it’s worth taking with a grain of salt for now.

PS: prepping this post, I Googled “Health Care Nation” plus my name, to see what came up.  Gemini offered this summary, with links –

Google Gemini on my Health Care Nation

Plus this:

Context within Bryan Alexander’s work Alexander is a futurist and researcher who creates “scenarios” to forecast possible futures. The “Health Care Nation” scenario is one of several futures he has developed and discussed in various contexts, including his blog, presentations, and in his own writings. He continues to monitor the scenario to see if the predicted trends are emerging in the real world.

That’s actually pretty good.