Another poll showing declining American support for higher education; some implications

For years I’ve been tracking changing American attitudes towards colleges and universities.  Those attitudes have soured over the past couple of decades, generally speaking, as shown in many opinion polls.  Overall, increasing numbers of people see academia as too expensive, not worth the money, and problematic in other ways.

This week’s poll offers more of the same.  NBC News asked 1,000 people what they thought of various topics, including higher ed.  This is a longitudinal survey, meaning NBC compared responses to the same questions over time.  When it comes to post-secondary education an attitudinal shift is quite clear.

Here’s I’ll outline the results, then sketch some possible implications.

Asked about cost and value, a growing number of Americans thought college not worth the cost – and now, a majority hold that view:

That’s nearly two-thirds of the whole.  Of us.

There are strong differences between respondents correlated with their political party affiliation, as I’ve noted previously, with Republicans very much against today’s colleges and universities, at least in terms of cost:

Note that independents follow the Republican direction, if not exactly to the same number, with nearly two-thirds expressing a negative view.  Democrats are more sympathetic to the academy, but over these three surveys follow the same trajectory as the rest. At present a slim majority of Democrats also hold a negative view, for the first time.

What might we make of this survey?

I begin with some skepticism about the survey size.  One thousand is not an awful lot of people, especially out of a country with more than 340 million.  So I take this with some amount of salt.

Given that caveat… I note that the decline starts in 2013.  Yes, that’s an artifact of when NBC offered these polls, but it does parallel other academic declines I’ve been noting: of total enrollment, number of institutions, of faith in “college for all.”

Let me expand on one part of the poll, its political implications.  Let’s start with the strong Republican position, which tells us that the GOP is still committed to its anti-academic stance. Put yourself in the shoes of a Republican politician, official, advisor, or analyst and review the poll results.  Bear in mind that they came after months of Trump attacking colleges and universities.  There is relatively little support for higher ed, not even a significant sympathy vote. Why would you change your tack?  Going after the academy seems to be more popular than many GOP causes.  Indeed, we should expect continued pressure on higher ed from the federal government, as well as Republican-led states and perhaps counties and cities as well.

Consider the Democrats. I’m not sure what the split means for that party as it scrambles to build election coalitions after 2024’s disasters. It might mean a number of Democratic officials will be less likely to defend the post-secondary sector from Republican charges at all governmental levels, given an unwillingness to take a position which polls badly.  Perhaps we’ll see some centrists go after colleges and universities for economic reasons, calling on the institutions to be better on pricing and results.  If so, we might see a bipartisan coalition to reform higher ed.  Given the lack of clear organization in the party, the presence of such an alliance wouldn’t mean other Democrats might not speak out for the academy.

More generally, it’s possible public debates over higher ed will become even more focused on economic issues. In the survey NBC emphasizes cost and value, and it’s apparent that academia is failing to make a case for itself along these lines.  I think the specter of student debt looms large here, and America overall has failed to solve this problem.  More, I suspect published prices also get attention – don’t forget several institutions just cracked the $100,000 per year barrier, with more to come. The fact that many students don’t pay those full fees is largely invisible.  Perhaps we should anticipate more governmental actions focusing on economic value, such as pressure to shut down programs less likely to generate income boosts for graduates or rewards for institutions which cut public tuition.

Where does all of this leave those of us working in the academy?  I expect some will once again call for us to tell our story better, but that ship seems to have sailed a while ago.  Calls for increased government funding are unlikely, given Republican attitudes and electoral triumphs, but there should be more statements asking politicians to protect post-secondary education.  Alternatively, will we see more efforts to rethink and redesign colleges and universities from within?