How the Iran war is hitting higher education and what might come next: an online collaborative analysis

How is the Iran war impacting higher education? What effects might unfold as the conflict continues?

That was the subject of Thursday’s Future Trends Forum video discussion.  We hosted three internationally-based experts to guide us: University World News journalist and military historian Nathan M. Greenfield; University College London professor (on secondment from the Welsh government) Huw Morris; global post-secondary education analyst and consultant Alex Usher.  We also read aloud an account of how the war is impacting Iran’s neighbor Armenia from American University of Armenia professor Brent Anders.

The conversation considered many concrete examples of the war’s impact across multiple nations. We also explored options of how things might change over the short and medium term future, from evacuating students under fire to switching instruction online, changing international enrollment patterns, rising prices for key operational commodities, teaching the war, supporting students, and more.

I was very pleased by the hour.  It was an example of collective or collaborative intelligence, as many people from different vantage points put together pieces of the overarching story. We also thought together in a convivial, supportive way – no small feat, given how enormously contentious the war is.  The results add up to an account of the conflict’s impact on higher ed in a way and to a depth I haven’t seen elsewhere.

I’d like to share the discussion here in two ways. First, here’s the full recording so you can just watch or listen:

Second, here is a summary of the key points, plus topics which surfaced in the typically lively chat conversation.  I’ve added hyperlinks to resources, as well as a couple of questions at the end which we didn’t get to.

Much depends on how the war continues in time and space. The longer it persists, the greater the potential impact worldwide.  Looking ahead, residents of attacked nations may attempt irregular actions against their attackers, such as cyberwar (one apparent attack already happened), guerrilla campaigns, or information operations. The Old Dominion University shooting is one potential example. As one participant put it, “universities (well out of “war” zones) have been seen (by some) as potential or actual targets for “terrorism” (or activities that get called such).”  The longer and more destructive the war gets, the more likely we’ll see migration out of conflict zones, which impacts academia in two ways: impacted academics moving out and non-effected campuses having the chance to host migrants.

We’ve seen campuses being physically damaged and their populations injured or killed: in Lebanon, by Israeli strikes; in Bahrain, by Iran, among others.  In one incident Qatar’s Education City evacuated residential students under threat of imminent missile/drone attack. This may impact the reputation of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) campuses which many held to be safer than others.

Some campuses have either paused operations or moved instruction online because of military threats or due to key institutional prices (energy, for example) spiking upwards given Iran’s blockading the Straits of Hormuz.  Examples we mentioned institutions in Bangladesh and the Phillippines.  Some students might not be able to access online education (for example, in Pakistan). As costs rise, university prices are likely to go up.  A related financial impact is a potential reduction in the number of international students, as students are caught by travel restrictions or fear attending risky colleges and universities.  Students and their families may redirect their academic ambitions away from key players in the conflict, such as the United States.  Governments may encourage or discourage study along similar lines.

There are other political options available now.  Governments fearing protests, dissent, and unrest may crack down on their populations, including academics, as we’ve seen in different ways in Iran and Britain. Iranian students may mobilize in demonstrations as they mourn those killed earlier this year. Fall elections in several nations (Israel and the United States, for example) may well change depending on how politicians position themselves concerning the war and how voters perceive them. On another political level, ratcheting stresses on the petroleum ecosystem worldwide might boost interest in renewables.

Governments and political actors might target academic institutions over war issues, such as members of war-fighting nations working in university positions or responding to pro- or anti-war protests (one example of an academic singling out another for their Iranian nationality).  Further, the Iran war might encourage other nations to launch their own campaigns, which could (among other things) further depress international study. One participant suggested that the war could cost Trump domestic political capital, weakening his ability to carry out his academic agenda.

Other campus developments and possibilities: we discussed ways of teaching the war in its historical content and in full complexity, with some echoes of Vietnam-era teach-ins.  Teaching in general may become more difficult as students deal with anxieties over the war; we cited an example of Israeli pupils. Conversely, some participants cited examples of students refusing to discuss the war. Academic meetings scheduled for endangered sites may move or shift online. (This one in Qatar came up, but I can’t get the link to load.) Academics (faculty, staff, students) will speak out on the conflict through various media; the Wall Street Journal posted a sample of student attitudes.  Participants shared resources for holding difficult discussions on campus from U Conn and Georgetown.

Will the war impact academic use of certain technologies, as Iran announced it targeted a series of American digital businesses? Is the US tech stack a vulnerability?  

I had two questions we didn’t get to.  First, should we expect a price spike or shortage of research supplies, such as helium?  Second, can we apply any lessons learned about academic populations and institutions in danger from the COVID-19 experience?

Thanks to our guests and the Future Trends Forum community for thinking together on this awful topic.  Thanks, too, to people who couldn’t make the live session but offered ideas and reflections: Brent Anders, Doug Belshaw, and others.