The post-COVID summer of higher education

What happens to higher education if COVID-19 vaccines are widely taken by next summer?

Way back in September I offered a scenario with a much darker vision, based on COVID continuing to gnaw on society for several more years.  Today I’d like to offer a more optimistic scenario.

Some supporters on Patreon contributed to this one, and I’m grateful to them (and you can join them!).

This scenario is predicated on several events occurring:

1. One or more vaccines successfully pass both quality (effectiveness) and safety tests.
2. Production occurs at enormous levels, with hundreds of millions of doses shipped in a few months.
3. Adoption is widespread – i.e., the number of people resisting the coronavirus vaccine is small enough to allow some form of herd immunity to take place.

None of those events are certain to happen over the next few months, but they could.  Let’s assume they do for the purposes of today’s scenario.  Readers can work out what it would take for the stars to align – and share thoughts in comments below.

How might things fall out?

DECEMBER 2020

Infections soar in the United States and Europe.  The American outbreak spikes upwards as Thanksgiving, then Christmas holiday gatherings accelerate the viral spread.

Snapshot of infections from today, via 91-DIVOC:

Hospitalizations, injuries, and deaths follow suit.

At the same time vaccines race through tests and into early production.  Awareness of this is widespread, fanned by professional and social media.  This spurs both hope and carelessness, the latter driving cases up even further.  Some front-line health care workers get the first doses, as do at-risk seniors in care facilities.

SPRING 2021

Increased public health problems rise in January, as populations get lax w/vaccines’ promise.  Infections, injuries, and deaths keep building up, unevenly across nations and regions.  Mask wearing mandates are issued at city and county levels, informally backed by the incoming Biden administration.

IHME projection.

Yet in the United States vaccines are distributed and taken by larger numbers of leading populations, including front line health workers and people living and working in elder care facilities.  As weeks go by vaccine production keeps churning.  More populations get access to doses.

Antivax sentiment is widespread.  Old school antivaxxers keep doing their thing.  Additionally, some right wingers urge people to avoid the shots, blaming the Biden administration and the media for pushing a bad treatment.  Antivax opinions also occur on the left, as a variety of opponents and arguments appear, from criticisms of the medical establishment to New Age nostrums.  Overall, women, black folks, younger people, and those without post-secondary education continue to be more skeptical than others.  Stories of side effects ricochet across social media.  But the majority of people flock to get whichever vaccine appears first.

In spring 2021 campuses tend to follow fall 2020 plans, more or less: a mix of in-person, online, and blended educational experiences.  More programs and classes are online than there were in the fall, given the pandemic’s general rise.  Appetite for the vaccine is among academics is high.  Different campus populations get access to doses at different calendar times, depending on each group’s role and also on differences by county, state, and region.

Meanwhile, more and more people get the vaccine as weeks and months go by, and winter yields to spring, then to

SUMMER 2021

By May 2021 COVID cases are falling in Europe and the United States.  Hospitalizations and deaths lag, but follow the overall trend. Long haul injuries continue to occur, and also continue to avoid the media spotlight.

In academia there aren’t many classes offered, as per tradition, but a greater proportion occur in person, as compared to summer ’20.

To teach or take an in person class, each person must provide proof of vaccination. Such proofs are attested digitally, supported by a range of authorities (governmental offices, insurance companies), while some people prefer physical artifacts, such as bracelets.

Through May, June, and July each college and university carefully assesses these summer classes to see how they proceed. Some of these experiments backfire, as faculty, staff, or especially students* are diagnosed with COVID-19.

At some point in this season a majority of Americans are vaccinated.  After that, there are arguments about what number constitutes herd immunity (60%? 70?), and various organizations issue claims of different numbers being attained.  The overall trajectory continues to be of increasing vaccination.

Colleges and universities plan for the majority of fall ’21 to be face-to-face.

FALL 2021

By August and September the consensus is that COVID-19 is in retreat.  Numbers and assessments vary, with fierce arguments over case fatality and reinfection rates, but it is clear that fall 2020’s bleak escalation has been reversed.  Antivaxxers are nearly universally shunned, mocked, and derided; their numbers are falling.

Campuses eagerly welcome back students for higher-density experiences.  Administrations enforce various degrees of public health measures, including requiring proof of vaccination to set foot on campus, personal and waste water tests, and restrictions on crowds.

Cocurricular activities aim to return to pre-pandemic levels.  Sports fans flock to tailgating. Greek houses conduct their yearlong socialization. Clubs meet in person. Residence halls offer programs.  Guest speakers and performers hit platforms.

Not everyone returns to campus.  Some older faculty and staff, especially those with comorbidities, are cautious and argue for continuing to work remotely.  The same goes for younger people living with this population. Some students prefer to continue online, either from dread or convenience.  As a result each campus has to decide on how or if to offer some hybrid educational experience.  Once again, HyFlex is an option, as is offering dual catalogs (one for online, one for in-person).  A clear majority of students, faculty, and staff hit campus in person at close to 2019 levels.

Overall enrollment might jolt up for the first time since 2012 as more people feel better about higher education’s possibilities.  International student numbers could play a role in such an uptick.

At times COVID-19 outbreaks hit campuses.  Administrations respond with what is by now a familiar playbook: containment, quarantine, short-term Toggle Terms.

2022 AND BEYOND

Tuition and fees may rise as campuses try to recover from the pandemic’s financial hole.

Students who took classes in 2020-2021 will refer to themselves as “the Class of COVID.”  Some number might see themselves as having endured a subpar educational experience.  Some might begrudge pre- and post-COVID students.

Some faculty will happily withdraw from digital practice, setting aside an experience they found unpleasant or faulty in favor of one they knew better.  Others will continue to teach online different degrees, from offering programs online to flipping classes.

Overall, the post-COVID campus is more digital than what schools looked like in 2019.  Some institutional operations have migrated thoroughly online, including many administrative functions, most of faculty and staff hiring.  Online programs and distance learning as a whole enroll higher numbers than ever:

An enthusiastic return to classroom instruction. But also, a flowering of distance/online programs with all that we've learned over the past year.

— Mike Sellers – always working on N+1 projects (@onlinealchemist) December 6, 2020

Faculty seek to claw back some governance capacity after perceiving administrations having grown in size and scope for emergency purposes.

Research in non-pandemic fields will have to catch up with those that worked on COVID.  This might be a source for grant-making and campus support – or else the gap will persist.

Much depends on the cultural memory of the pandemic.  Will we suppress it and move on, like the Great Influenza and the 2008 financial crash?  Or will it play an active role in our thinking?

If we remember, then:

–Universal Design for Learning could add a public health dimension.

-Campus building design could change to allow more social distancing and connections between interior spaces and the outside.

-Pandemic-related academic programs will keep growing in enrollment and support.

-Campus operations are more extensively digital than they were before the pandemic hit.

-“Now that HigherEd institutions know what is required to confront the next public health crisis, remote teaching and learning has become a concrete option instead of an extreme, far-fetched scenario.” (Cristian Opazo)

Thus concludes the scenario.  It’s one I think many in academia will appreciate.

Remember that scenarios are not predictions so much as models of what might occur, given certain conditions.

It’s also a scenario covering a lot of moving parts, and just a first pass at the topic.  What do you think of it?  What else should we bear in mind?  Overall, how do you think it could play out?

EDITED TO ADD: comments from Twitter:

Shane Meyer sees professional association and travel altered:

The interesting component here is how travel & associations have been impacted. Less travel funds, continued fear of travel, other means to now get the pro dev rather than traveling to an overpriced destination conference.

— Shana Meyer (@ShanaLMeyer) December 7, 2020

Paul Martin hoped that teaching would improve, based on a certain campus capacity being realized:

[W]hat changes to teaching will be made by those who never took advantage of their institution’s CTL until they were forced to by the pandemic. Will the experience have been transformative or a temporary step away from what they’ve always done[?]

Jill Yoshikawa sees an opportunity to rethink higher ed:

With reevaluating the mission of the university as an institution. Are they "adult incubators", places of learning, job training centers, residences, knowledge generators, or all of the above?

— Jill Yoshikawa EdM Harvard '99 (@CreativeMarbles) December 6, 2020

Peter Elliott thinks financial damage will be harsher:

Good thoughts but I think that you underestimate the cumulative adverse financial impact especially in the Community College space. https://t.co/ePZCgCQGcy

— Peter Elliott (@psefsu) December 6, 2020

I think that declines in state and/or local resources will not be offset by rising tuition & fees (if possible) and downward pressure on total enrollment.https://t.co/ClLHGRXQCi https://t.co/66x4ZGLm2r

— Peter Elliott (@psefsu) December 6, 2020

RalphGigliotti thinks one aspect of the curriculum will receive a boost:

Look forward to reading it. More intentional emphasis on leadership development across our institutions as we look ahead to future crises?

— Ralph Gigliotti (@RalphGigliotti) December 6, 2020

Thecman thinks students will pressure post-pandemic institutions for more flexibility:

Many will want to return to business as usual, some will lean in and take the opportunity to transform the way they deliver knowledge, the vast majority will have to wrestle with the need of students for flexibility and the institutions desire something more familiar.

— Settling down for a long winter’s depression. (@thecman) December 6, 2020

On LinkedIn, Suzanne Wilson Summers adds a great point:

Where the politics of this will get hairy and shape the scenario is whether or not public institutions will be able to require vaccinations (as we currently do for meningitis) for both students and employees in red states like mine. It’s hard to see states like TX, FL, GA, etc,. that have treated masks as an individual freedom issue not doing the same with vaccines. If that’s the case, I think it will have a long-term impact on the ability to recruit faculty.

(Thanks to my Patreon supporters, especially Catherine Wehlburg)

*I wrote “especially students” not to shame them, but for the simple statistical reason that there are a lot more students than instructors or support staff.