The latest data on American demographics and what it means for higher education’s future

The United States Census recently released data about the nation’s population.  This is very rich and useful stuff in general, and in particular has relevance for higher education.

Here I’ll summarize highlights, then add some thoughts about what it all might mean for the next decade of colleges and universities.  I don’t have time to go into the electoral implications (In the US, Census results feed into shifting and redesigning Congressional districts.).

Some of the most important findings have to do with race.  Most are unsurprising, and all matter.  To begin with, the number of people identifying as white or Caucasian is the largest number of the overall population (“204.3 million people identifying as White alone. Overall, 235.4 million people reported White alone or in combination with another group”) yet that number actually shank over the past decade, “decreas[ing] by 8.6% since 2010.”

The next largest racial group in American society remains Hispanic, numbering “62.1 million in 2020.”  That population grew very strongly, by 23% over the past decade.  Asian Americans grew even more rapidly, while the black population grew slightly.  In the BBC’s summary:

the Asian-American population swelled by 35% to 24 million, making it the fastest growing segment of the US population. The black population grew by 5.6%, though essentially held steady at 12.1% as a share of the overall US demographic.

The Census also mapped out racial diversity by using an interesting stat: the odds that any two people will be of different races. They then applied this to states:

One of the biggest racial surprises was the massive uptick in people declaring themselves multiracial:

The Two or More Races population (also referred to as the Multiracial population) has changed considerably since 2010. The Multiracial population was measured at 9 million people in 2010 and is now 33.8 million people in 2020, a 276% increase.

276%!  That’s a huge cultural change.  How much of that is due to a generation’s worth of increasing interracial childbirth?  Some is due to changes in the language the Census uses, along with shifts in how Latinos see themselves, according to Hansi Lo Wang.

The Census also measured population density, and it’s worth reflecting on to see which states have crammed in the most people, and which are relatively sparsely settled:

The most populous states are fairly consistent with recent history, showing a full range of geography (west, south, northeast, midwest) and politics (currently “red” and “blue” states):

Population growth followed a similarly diverse pattern: “Texas experienced the largest numeric increase between 2010 and 2020, followed by Florida, California, Georgia and Washington.”  On the other side of the demographic coin, “[t]he populations of three states — West Virginia, Mississippi and Illinois — and Puerto Rico declined over the decade.”

Mapping out the results shows the nation generally continuing to shift people towards the south and west:

Now, if we narrow our focus a bit, things get more complicated on the county level:

Here we can see another demographic trend of  note: the emptying out of rural areas and growth of cities.

The population of U.S. metro areas grew by 9% from 2010 to 2020, resulting in 86% of the population living in U.S. metro areas in 2020, compared to 85% in 2010.

Meanwhile, remember that this data is not perfect, especially since racial tensions in 2020 may have skewed results.

So what does all of this mean for higher education?

Most of these results are further datapoints for trends I and others have been tracking for a while, and the suggestions I offer remain the same. Colleges and universities in rural areas will continue to suffer good chances of the local economy declining and of being less attractive to would-be students, staff, and faculty. The decline of the white population and the rise of other racial groups means continued attention to serving the latter justly. This will likely confirm campuses in their decisions to pursue antiracist programs and strategies.

I am still curious about the massive upsurge in multiracial identification and am not sure how that plays out in academia. Sure, at a data level, it means we need to be sure to support people in their many identity fields.  Does it also produce friction with politics and programs which see people as possessing unitary identities (i.e., Asian, not Asian-Hispanic)?  Does it point to a more fluid sense of racial selfhood?  I would love to see that population broken down by other identities, such as age, geography, gender, and education.

For most institutions the state and especially county data is the important stuff, as most campuses draw students locally.

What are academics in your networks saying about this Census report?