American tinderbox: a new poll

Today’s post is a quick one.  Work and health combined are still obliterating my schedule, and look likely to do so for a month, so here I will be direct and fast.

For years I’ve been tracking and forecasting the ways America could descend into civil unrest, breakdown, or open war (some examples). This week saw a new poll which points to more possibilities along that line.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics surveyed Americans about their attitudes towards opposing political parties.  The results describe a people not only divided along partisan lines, not only seeing opponents as active dangers, but justifying extraordinary responses.

Let me break down what I saw as key findings.

To begin with, look at the numbers of Americans who see their political opposites as extremely dangerous.  This doesn’t mean “I think their policies are unpleasant”:

That’s roughly half on each side who sees the other as presenting a “clear and present danger” to American democracy, and who should be censored.  Moreover, and beyond that screen shot, was this question: “There’s no real difference between [Republicans and Fascists/Democrats and Socialists]”.  Biden voters supported that by 56%/29%, while Trump voters were 76%/54%.

Note, too, the very high level of distrust of news media among adherents of each side.

Next, there is also a broader, more structural unease revealed in this finding:

more than 6 in 10 Trump and Biden voters see America as less a representative democracy and more a system that is run by and rigged for the benefit of the wealthy.

Among other things, this shared attitude makes available thoughts of total critique and extraordinary action.

Which leads to where some Americans are thinking things should go.  For some of us, the ballot box is no longer enough:

Look closely at the first two questions.  Those are not about government but social or individual action.  Around one third of Americans now strongly support independent, private action against… radicals and evil within society.

The next two return to politics.  One is about a “strong leader” and the other about such a leader not having to deal with the problems of what some quaintly refer to as Constitutional order.   A quarter of Democrats and nearly half of the GOP strongly support the former, while about one fifth of each similarly back what sounds like constitutional exception or a state of emergency.  Between one half and 82% (!) “at least somewhat agree” with these stances.

Caesarism and vigilanteism are not all of the options significant numbers of Americans are thinking hard about.  Secession is also on deck, albeit with small numbers, around one fifth strongly backing a divorce, while nearly one half are secession-curious.

Poll language is always crucial, and I was struck by some of it here. The phrase “clear and present danger” is not only a movie title, but a callback to the very important (and, I think, dangerous) Schenk vs US (1917) Supreme Court decision. That’s the one legitimizing punishment of free speech by prison due to extraordinary circumstances (WWI, in that case). Also, note the use of “censor” instead of a euphemisms like “content moderation” or suggesting private platforms screen and cull content.

I called this post “American tinder” because the poll describes a setting, not a plot.  It reveals attitudes, but not actions we’re taking yet.  It’s a combustible situation and we should watch for two things: how the attitudes persist and for sparks which might set fires.

Yet futurists always look for divergent futures and countervailing forces.  Here, the poll found a lot of common ground on individual infrastructure projects.  That points to one way Americans are united rather than trying to quash each other.  There is also this key note: “roughly 80% of Trump and Biden voters view democracy as preferable to any non-democratic kind of government.”  I would like to learn more about that 20%, but it’s good to see a supermajority still liking democracy.

Over to you, readers.  Is America a tinderbox?  What does this mean for higher education?