#SummerOfScarcity

If you're selective with social media and limit yourself to following smart, savvy—in the good sense—people (which now pretty much means Bluesky), you will often start hearing about the next big story a week or more before everyone else. Case in point: last week, when everyone was trying to decipher the latest vague and contradictory comment on tariffs out of the White House, those who followed people like Carl Quintanilla knew that the first wave of damage from the tariffs was already on its way (or, more precisely, not on its way), and it was too late to do anything about it.

This information was coming out before and during the huge market rally.

 

#SummerOfScarcity 🇺🇸 [image or embed]

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) April 19, 2025 at 11:22 AM

#SummerOfScarcity 🇺🇸 [image or embed]

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 5:26 PM

“.. Everything you’re buying today was imported pretariffs. But those warehouses will run out in the next 30 to 90 days,” he says. @wsj.com #SummerOfScarcity www.wsj.com/tech/persona... [image or embed]

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 6:26 PM

I see people comparing Trump to 1700s mercantilists. That’s not quite right. Even 18th century mercantilists knew that if you were trying to use tariffs to boost your trade surplus, you wanted to tax imports of *finished goods,* not the *inputs* www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/tru... [image or embed]

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 6:53 PM

Again even the 1700s mercantilists knew not to do something this dumb www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0... [image or embed]

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 4:30 PM

youtu.be/5cje9uX5rXg?... [image or embed]

— markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 2:52 PM

Every factory on earth, except those located in the United States, can get the inputs they need from China, without paying an additional 145 percent markup.

— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 10:11 AM

Lol “strategic uncertainty” 🤡 [image or embed]

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 1:03 PM

This is nonsense [image or embed]

— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 6:43 AM

Kill me [image or embed]

— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 8:40 AM

Bloomberg’s daily data for the number of container ships sailing from China to the US. Huge drop in recent weeks. (H/T Torsten Slok) [image or embed]

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:14 AM

US sales to China of key agricultural commodities, like soybeans and pork, are plunging as the trade war begins to impact the domestic economy. www.axios.com/2025/04/26/t... [image or embed]

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 26, 2025 at 7:03 AM

Suboptimal, if I’m honest. www.wsj.com/business/log... [image or embed]

— Sky Marchini (@sky.skymarchini.net) April 25, 2025 at 8:18 PM

“In the 3 weeks since the tariffs took effect, ocean-container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by more than 60%. “Cargo carriers that bring Asian goods to the Port of Los Angeles have canceled 20 port calls next month, more than 3 times as many as last month.” Gift link ⤵️ wapo.st/4jWUrip [image or embed]

— Bill Grueskin (@bgrueskin.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 6:19 PM

Toward the end of the week, this started getting serious coverage. Of the major news orgs, the LA Times seems to have beaten the competition by at least a day or two.

Imports at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to plunge in the next two weeks, even as negotiations over the final tariffs that China and other countries must pay are still being negotiated by President Trump.

That was the sobering message that port Executive Director Gene Seroka had Thursday for the Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners during an update on port activity.

“It’s my prediction that in two weeks’ time, arrivals will drop by 35% as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased, and cargo coming out of Southeast Asia locations is much softer than normal,” Seroka told the board.

On the container ship traffic from China to the US this article from the Journal from two days ago has a lot of details. (link should be unlocked) www.wsj.com/business/log... [image or embed]

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:28 PM

Again more data on container shipping www.barrons.com/articles/tar... [image or embed]

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 8:25 PM

This is a key point. Shortages are already baked. [image or embed]

— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:30 AM

That whole thread from Marshall is worth checking out, particularly the conclusion.

5/ that after the first week or may there are simply no ships from China arriving. Whatever the precise specifics the point is that this is already locked in. The severe drop off has already happened but it’s all off set by weeks because the Pacific Ocean is big and ocean freight speed is …

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

6/ relatively slow. And it has knock on effects in domestic shipping. It will hit trucking hard but that’s still a couple weeks away. Even if you only have roughly a 50% drop off in volume that shows up not just as rising costs but shortages. And even Trump woke up tomorrow and …

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

7/ called everything off you’d still have a significant period of shortages locked in. And obviously that’s not going to happen. We will also almost certainly see a limited version of the supply chain snarls we say during the pandemic. There are reports of some containers simply sitting or …

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

8/ being abandoned in ports. Also when there’s no product you start laying off truckers or independents do something else. So when the product comes back on line the system to move the product out of port doesn’t come back immediately. The upshot is that we’ve already locked in a long hot …

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

Social media platforms such as Blue Sky have tools that let you decide who to let in and it turns out that these platforms can be pretty great if you only listen to people worth listening to.