Notes on Netflix + WB -- in retrospect, my biggest mistake was not realizing what a dumpster fire Disney+ would be under Bob Chapek
West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more) 2025-12-08
We’ve been on the Netflix beat for over a decade, and one of the recurring points we’ve made for most of that time is that—despite what the press had been led to believe—the company’s catalog was incredibly thin and the widely accepted claim that Netflix was going to catch up simply by cranking out large numbers of “originals” was never credible. We argued that there were only two realistic outcomes: either the company would remain dependent on the major studios, or it would eventually have to buy one of their catalogs. Both on the blog and on Twitter, we repeatedly floated Comcast as a possible acquisition target. Here’s what we were saying back in 2018. Much of it is no longer applicable, but a surprising amount still is.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Netflix Exit Strategies -- Comcast?
I apologize for writing these out of order, but one of the lessons I've
learned as a blogger is that, if you want to speculate on something, get
the post up quick because events have a way of moving faster than you
could imagine and a position can go from bold and provocative to
yesterday's news overnight. For that reason, I want to jump ahead
in the Netflix thread to exit strategies. Right now the company is
sitting in a classic corporate throne of Damocles, king of the world but
with a sword dangling over its head. Having a market cap bigger than
Disney's is wonderful, but that stock price is based almost entirely on a
highly questionable narrative. How do you gracefully cash out in such a
situation? One possibility I'd like to open up for discussion is
some kind of merger or acquisition with Comcast (with the question of
who would be acquiring whom rather bizarrely up in the air). There is
something of a precedent here with AOL Time Warner, but Netflix and
Comcast are a far better fit. The two companies already have an extremely close working relationship. As previously mentioned,
in the all important children's division, Netflix is largely dependent
on licensing properties from the NBC/Universal library. NBC also
produces (and apparently owns) one of Netflix's highest profile shows,
Kimmy Schmidt. Netflix also desperately needs guaranteed access
to a major content library. We currently have a thread going about how
the "plan" for Netflix to produce its way out of this problem is unworkable and probably insincere. Though not on par with Disney or Warners, NBC/Universal does have such a library. The
Disney Fox deal means that the House of Mouse now owns a controlling
interest in Hulu. This has got to leave Comcast feeling somewhat out in
the old. Pairing up with Netflix would put the company roughly on an
even footing with its rival. And finally, with the uncertain future of net neutrality, the business logic of the partnership is even stronger. I'm
writing and posting this in haste so I well may end up repenting it in
leisure, but if we are on to something, I'd very much like to be to say
you heard it (and discussed it) here first.