How to think about the future

Nesta has just released a video (below) of the event I did in London a few weeks ago with Nate Silver and others. It's a short discussion (5 minutes from each) on prediction and forecasting, followed by 45 minutes of (good) questions from the audience. My wife's opinion is that I spoke well but radiated unnecessary waves of negativity over the audience by emphasizing the limitations of prediction and the dangers that follow from believing you can predict when in fact you cannot. Maybe so! But sometimes I do like to be cautious...