How are US consumers and firms responding to tariffs?

New 40-page slide deck from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok, entitled “The Voluntary Trade Reset Recession,” the probability of which he now puts at 90%. How are consumers responding to tariffs?… click to enlarge the screen shot below:

• Consumer confidence at record-low levels
• Front-loading purchases before tariffs began
• Tourism slowing, in particular international

See also via CNBC- Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline – “The economic impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods from China, U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to the presentation. “The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients Friday…”