Polymarket hosts a future hellscape 

Protos – “Polymarket, a prediction market platform owned by New York-based company Blockratize, currently has open assassination markets on its website. They’re easy to find because they’re some of the most heavily traded markets on the platform. Among these markets are:

• Iran leader by end of 2026? (the current Ayatollah is on the list)
• Will the Iranian regime fall by (numerous dates available to bet on)?
• Will the Iranian regime survive US military strikes?

So-called “assassination markets” are some of the most heavily traded markets on Polymarket. Despite the death of Ayatollah Khamenei being among the most popular prediction markets, Kalshi, as per its terms and conditions, didn’t pay out when he died. Polymarket, however, did, and half a billion dollars changed hands in the process..

Donald Trump and US politicians noticeably absent. Polymarket seems to purposely avoid including US politicians or the current US president in any possible assassination markets, but the same cannot be said for nearly every other major leader in the world…it’s almost certainly down to the fact that Polymarket is based in the US, that its founder, Shayne Coplan, is a US citizen, and that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to and investor in the company…the Biden administration had effectively stopped Polymarket from advertising to or onboarding US citizens. These hinderances to the platform’s growth came to end in 2025 thanks to the Trump administration dropping multiple probes into its practices, which could have led to lawsuits and possible criminal prosecutions. Instead, Polymarket now finds itself at the forefront of a world where leaders of countries have public hits put on them via vague market questions that leave murder open as an interpretation and solution.