This morning, as the data were coming in from Europe for Q1 GDP, I got a reminder from Twitter about the inherent deflationary nature of the euro area’s design.| And this goes directly to how to think about credit risk in Europe. I followed a twitter post to a Charles Goodhart article from 1997, written before European Monetary Union. And he was saying things that the late British economist Wynne Godley was banging on about five years earlier when the Maastricht Treaty set out the terms for euro. Here’s the crux as it relates to credit risk in Europe:
Credit Writedowns
Why the euro crisis will happen again and Italy will be involved Edward Harrison