The shape of AGI: Cartoons and back of envelope

​​[Cross posted on lesswrong; see here for my prior writings] There have been several studies to estimate the timelines for artificial general intelligence (aka AGI). Ajeya Cotra wrote a report in 2020 (see also 2022 update)  forecasting AGI based on comparisons with “biological anchors.” That is, comparing the total number of FLOPs invested in a training run or inference with … Continue reading The shape of AGI: Cartoons and back of envelope