The mini-singularity
Shtetl-Optimized 2025-01-21
Err, happy MLK Day!
This week represents the convergence of so many plotlines that, if it were the season finale of some streaming show, I’d feel like the writers had too many balls in the air. For the benefit of the tiny part of the world that cares what I think, I offer the following comments.
My view of Trump is the same as it’s been for a decade—that he’s a con man, a criminal, and the most dangerous internal threat the US has ever faced in its history. I think Congress and Merrick Garland deserve eternal shame for not moving aggressively to bar Trump from office and then prosecute him for insurrection—that this was a catastrophic failure of our system, one for which we’ll now suffer the consequences. If this time Trump got 52% of some swing state rather than 48%, if the “zeitgeist” or the “vibes” have shifted, if the “Resistance” is so weary that it’s barely bothering to show up, if Bezos and Zuckerberg and Musk and even Sam Altman now find it expedient to placate the tyrant rather than standing up for what previously appeared to be their principles—well, I don’t see how any of that affects how I ought to feel.
All the same, I have no plans to flee the United States or anything, just like I didn’t the last time. I’ll even permit myself pleasure when the crazed strongman takes actions that I happen to agree with (like pushing the tottering Ayatollah regime toward its well-deserved end). And then I’ll vote for Enlightenment values (or the nearest available approximation) in 2026 and 2028, assuming the country survives until then.
The second plotline is the ceasefire in Gaza, and the beginning of the release of the Israeli hostages, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners. I have all the mixed emotions you might expect. I’m terrified about the precedent this reinforces and about the many mass-murderers it will free—as I was terrified in 2011 by the Gilad Shalit deal, the one that released Sinwar and thereby set the stage for October 7. Certainly World War II didn’t end with the Nazis marching triumphantly around Berlin, guns in the air, and vowing to repeat their conquest of Europe at the earliest opportunity. All the same, it’s not my place to be more Zionist than Netanyahu, or than the vast majority of the Israeli public that supported the deal. I’m obviously thrilled to see the hostages return, and even slightly touched by the ethic that would move heaven and earth to save these specific people, almost every consideration of game theory and utilitarianism be damned. I take solace that we’re not quite returning to the situation of October 6, since Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself have all been severely degraded (and the Assad regime no longer exists). This is no longer 1944, when you can slaughter 1200 Jews without paying any price for it: that was the original promise of the State of Israel. All the same, I fear bloodshed will continue from here until the Singularity, unless majorities on both sides choose coexistence—partition, the two-state solution, call it whatever you will. And that’s primarily a question of culture, and the education of children.
The third plotline was the end of TikTok, quickly followed by its (temporary?) return on Trump’s order. As far as I can tell, Instagram, Twitter/X, and TikTok have all been net negatives for the world; it would’ve been far better if none of them had been invented. But, OK, our society allows many things that are plausibly net-negative, like sports betting and Cheetos. In this case, however, the US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 (!!) that Congress has a legitimate interest in keeping Chinese Communist Party spyware off 170 million Americans’ phones—and that there’s no First Amendment concern that overrides this security interest, since the TikTok ban isn’t targeting speech on the basis of its content. I found the court’s argument convincing. I hope TikTok goes dark 90 days from now—or, second-best, that it gets sold to some entity that’s merely bad in the normal ways and not a hostile foreign power.
The fourth plotline is the still-ongoing devastation of much of Los Angeles. I heard from friends at Caltech and elsewhere who had to evacuate their homes—but at least they had homes to return to, as those in Altadena and the Palisades didn’t. It’s a sign of the times that even a disaster of this magnitude now brings only partisan bickering: was the cause climate change, reshaping the entire planet in terrifying ways, just like all those experts have been warning for decades? Or was it staggering lack of preparation from the California and LA governments? My own answers to these questions are “yes” and “yes.”
Maybe I’ll briefly highlight the role of the utilitarianism versus deontology debate. According to this article from back in October, widely shared once the fires started, the US Forest Service halted controlled burns in California because it lacked the manpower, but also this:
“I think the Forest Service is worried about the risk of something bad happening [with a prescribed burn]. And they’re willing to trade that risk — which they will be blamed for — for increased risks on wildfires,” Wara said. In the event of a wildfire, “if something bad happens, they’re much less likely to be blamed because they can point the finger at Mother Nature.”
We saw something similar with the refusal to allow challenge trials for the COVID vaccines, which could’ve moved the approval date up by months and saved millions of lives. Humans are really bad at trolley problems, at weighing a concrete, immediate risk against a diffuse future risk that might be orders of magnitude worse. (Come to think of it, Israel’s repeated hostage deals are another example—though that one has the defense that it demonstrates the lengths to which the state will go to protect its people.)
Oh, and on top of everything else, today—January 20th—is my daughter’s 12th birthday. Happy birthday Lily!!