Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Type Journal Article Author Timothy Roberton Author Emily D. Carter Author Victoria B. Chou Author Angela R. Stegmuller Author Bianca D. Jackson Author Yvonne Tam Author Talata Sawadogo-Lewis Author Neff Walker URL https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30229-1/abstract Volume 8 Issue 7 Pages e901-e908 Publication The Lancet Global Health ISSN 2214-109X Date 12/05/2020 Extra Publisher: Elsevier PMID: 32405459 Journal Abbr The Lancet Global Health DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30229-1 Accessed 2020-07-02 14:50:27 Library Catalog www.thelancet.com Language English Abstract We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Short Title Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries