COVID 19: Real-time Forecasts of Confirmed Cases, Active Cases, and Health Infrastructure Requirements for India and its States using the ARIMA model. | medRxiv preprints (not peer-reviewed)

Type Journal Article Author Rishabh Tyagi Author Mahadev Bramhankar Author Mohit Pandey Author M. Kishore URL https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104588v2 Publication medRxiv The Preprint Server for Health Sciences Date 22/05/2020 DOI https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104588 Accessed 2020-07-05 18:12:02 Abstract Background: COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March 2020. The Indian public health care system is already overstretched, and this pandemic is making things even worse. That is why forecasting cases for India is necessary to meet the future demands of the health infrastructure caused due to COVID-19. Objective: Our study forecasts the confirmed and active cases for COVID-19 until July mid, using time series Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Additionally, we estimated the number of isolation beds, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds and ventilators required for the growing number of COVID-19 patients.