U-shaped association between the glycemic variability and prognosis in hemorrhagic stroke patients: a retrospective cohort study from the MIMIC-IV database

Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2025 Apr 3;16:1546164. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1546164. eCollection 2025.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Elevated glycemic variability (GV) is commonly observed in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and has been associated with clinical outcomes. However, the relationship between GV and prognosis in ICU patients with hemorrhagic stroke (HS) remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between GV and short- and long-term all-cause mortality.

METHODS: Clinical data for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) patients were obtained from the MIMIC-IV 3.1 database. GV was quantified using the coefficient of variation (CV), calculated as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean blood glucose level. The association between GV and clinical outcomes was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Additionally, restricted cubic spline (RCS) curves were employed to examine the nonlinear relationship between GV and short- and long-term all-cause mortality.

RESULTS: A total of 2,240 ICU patients with HS were included in this study. In fully adjusted models, RCS analyses revealed a U-shaped association between the CV and both short- and long-term all-cause mortality (P for nonlinearity < 0.001 for all outcomes). Two-piecewise Cox regression models were subsequently applied to identify CV thresholds. The thresholds for all-cause mortality in ICU, during hospitalization, and at 30, 90, and 180 days were determined to be 0.14, 0.16, 0.155, 0.14, and 0.14, respectively. These findings were consistent in sensitivity and subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: In HS patients, higher GV is associated with an increased risk of both short- and long-term all-cause mortality. Our findings suggest that stabilizing GV may improve the prognosis of HS patients.

PMID:40248149 | PMC:PMC12003122 | DOI:10.3389/fendo.2025.1546164