It’s 5 O’Clock. You Should Have Waited Until Now to Buy Your World Series Ticket.

HBR.org 2013-10-30

Earlier today, as I was sitting in our Boston-area HBR office debating whether or not to shell out $2,056 (not including beer and other necessary snacks) for a chance to sit in the freezing cold with thousands of my closest friends to watch a bunch of hairy dudes make history, I overheard a colleague admit that he, in fact, has tickets to tonight’s game.

The joy he must have felt, compared to my yearning and awe, is just one of the reasons why the prices for tonight’s game have gone up in the day leading to the game, so much so that tonight’s tickets may be the highest-priced ever. This last-minute increase is a rare phenomenon, according to pricing expert and ticket aficionado Rafi Mohammed. Traditionally, he explained, prices tend to go down in the days leading up to a big game, but there are four factors that make this situation an entirely (excuse the pun) different ballgame:

  • The first five games have been pretty thrilling, with only one of which ended with a lopsided score. The odds are pretty slim that a boring blowout is in the cards for the Red Sox and Cardinals.
  • There’s an opportunity to see the Red Sox win the World Series at home, something that hasn’t happened since 1918, giving the high price an additional “historical value” in people’s minds.
  • The city is just plain excited, and the closer a person can get to that excitement, the better. The social capital of saying “I’m going to the game” at the water cooler is worth a lot.
  • This is Boston, a city that, despite having won several World Series, hasn’t forgotten its 86-year championship dry spell. And because it’s been a little more than six months since the Boston Marathon bombing, the “Boston Strong” sentiment is deeply felt by much of the city (and the Red Sox themselves).

All of these factors are putting more value in the price of a seat — but many of the people who bought tickets right after game five may have jumped a little too soon.

“People could have been shrewder and could have waited until today to buy,” said Mohammed. “Everyone became very excited after game five, so asking whether or not it’s good price or not wasn’t important — they just wanted to buy a ticket and mitigate risk. But if you wait and can be flexible on seats, you can get in on a lower price.” That’s why, if you feel daring, waiting until a few hours before the game may give you the best deal — indeed, at the time of writing, there are 376 tickets under $2,056 available on the same site that provided the average above.

And if the series extends to a seventh game? Prices may skyrocket even higher due to any extra fun afforded to winning a World Series on Halloween. “Basically, you’ll have to mortgage your house,” Mohammed said, only half, I imagine, in jest. But let’s hope we don’t end up in that situation tomorrow, shall we?